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Just eight weeks in the past when the Villa attacker found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager berated him for missing a penetrating pass. At that point, as Villa failed to win in six, doubts remained whether his displays were an indicator or a cause of the side's broader struggles.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

In the latest match, though, the touchline reaction was decidedly more positive. When the in-form star curled home his brace-sealing goal to reinstate Villa's lead, the boss discarded his coat, spread his arms and roared. Villa continued to ten wins in a row , after failing to win their opening six matches, are somehow a mere three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.

Are They Genuine Hopefuls?

That’s a particularly tough query to resolve. The historical record, a general sense of this institution, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they've rarely been completely commanding in many games, even as the victories have piled up.

Per the data, on just two occasions has the side posted an expected goals figure significantly higher than the other team. For a team that have just won ten consecutive victories, Villa seem weirdly vulnerable – however at the moment the fine lines are swinging for them.

The Winning Formula

The current approach looks like to exchange chances with the opposition and then rely on their star man to save the day with some clinical strikes. This was the case at Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and it happened when facing United.

Rogers' first goal originated from an exquisite effort, curled precisely inside the post from a wide position. For his second proved to be a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Is It Sustainable?

Logic says not. In the recent win, Manchester United managed more shots and more efforts on goal. Villa have won each of their last eight by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those fixtures.

A statistical correction may well be the greatest opponent Villa must confront over the coming weeks. Rogers, in all likelihood, will not continue to thrashing the ball into the top corner indefinitely.

A Case for Belief

Perhaps there is another reality whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs may yet find their top level.

• The centre-forward may begin to scoring again.
• The winger might become the force he showed in Germany.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to come back from the treatment room, bolstering a periodically leaky defensive unit.

Maybe within that lies the possibility of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on a single individual.

Savoring the Moment

But then, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought the team would be in the top three for the holidays. And certainly two months ago, few could imagine Rogers now would be spearheading a title charge while looking like an essential England player.

This winning streak is to be savoured precisely because it appears so improbable. As Rogers positioned himself before the home supporters when the game ended leading the celebrations, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These spells are rare in football and must be appreciated.