Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
